How is the battle over the Epstein disclosure bill likely to end?
So far, House Speaker Mike Johnson has proven remarkably adept at preventing his rowdy cohort from wreaking havoc in the chamber, a skill that last week again thwarted the efforts of a group of Republicans eager to undermine President Donald Trump. But the speaker’s talent, by necessity, may reach a tipping point by the end of this month.
Last Tuesday, Rep. Tom Massie of Kentucky introduced a measure that would force the full House to vote on a bill requiring the Justice Department to disclose everything it knows about convicted financier Jeffrey Epstein and his accusers of sexual assault. The next day, Epstein’s alleged victims took to the steps of the Capitol to draw more attention to Massie’s plea for acquittal. And it worked. The rally was the talk of Washington, with woman after woman speaking eloquently about their interactions with Epstein, increasing pressure on the House to act.
“I ask you, President Trump and members of Congress: Why do we continue to cover up sexual assault? Who are we covering up for?” said Attorney Chauntae Davis. “Tell the public the truth. We cannot heal without justice. We cannot protect the future if we refuse to confront the past.”
Massie’s petition needs 218 signatures to force a vote. So far, only four Republicans—Massie, along with Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, and Nancy Mace of South Carolina—have joined the coalition. It is widely assumed that all 212 Democrats will join, bringing the total to 216—just two more than the original 212. There are four vacant House seats, three of which are almost certain to be won by Democrats. If Democrats can hold onto the late Rep. Gerry Connolly’s Virginia district and the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva’s Arizona district, that’s the game. Both special elections are held this month. The third district, likely held by the Blue Party and until recently held by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas, will be voted on in November.
Massie has gained notoriety as a disgruntled figure in the House of Representatives. Two years ago, he stood alone in opposing a resolution condemning anti-Semitism. In January, he was the only Republican to vote against keeping Johnson as speaker. Impeachment petitions remain in effect as long as their sponsor keeps them on the agenda, meaning this could ultimately be a test of will between Massie and a president who didn’t vote for him.
While the declassification brigade may have momentum, this is still Trump’s Washington, and the paths to blocking a bill he doesn’t support are wide. Even if the measure passes the House, the Senate remains a significant obstacle, where Majority Leader John Thune wields considerable influence. Most bills still require 60 votes to advance, and there is no sign of the level of support in the Senate to clearly challenge Trump. Of course, it’s impossible for Trump to cave and sign a massive bill, which would mean this whole thing is a legislative nonsense.
Nevertheless, the very fact that this measure is still in effect suggests that Trumpism is facing a critical moment.
From his campaign to the West Wing, Trump has fueled a wave of insinuations that a global mob is behind Epstein’s sex ring. Once he returned to power, Trump lost control of the narrative, and all his efforts to quell it have had the opposite effect. There’s a lot of noise here: arrogant billionaires, sex, and defenseless children.
Earlier this summer, Johnson sent his troops home early for their vacation to avoid a high-stakes vote on a bill related to the Epstein case, giving him time he hoped would defuse the situation. But the simmering tensions have persisted. Last week, Johnson pushed through a symbolic bill to authorize the House Oversight Committee to continue its work on the Epstein investigation. This measure was a pretext, but it worked for now. (On Friday, Johnson claimed that Trump was an FBI informant in the Epstein case, before backtracking.)
It’s impossible to ignore the massive effort Republican leaders have made to slow all this down. This is all the more astonishing when you consider what’s on the House agenda—don’t forget that the government will be bankrupt at the end of the month.
For now, it appears that Trump has achieved his goal, and Johnson has settled the matter. But these brief fluctuations reveal the unease within Johnson’s razor-thin majority and the volatility of his base. There’s no telling whether this bill is dead or gone. Fanatics are known to revive issues of all stripes.
But in a House where the speaker can exercise considerable vengeance, pushing something to the extreme could be career-ending. Two initial votes against Johnson’s presidency were overturned under intense pressure from the White House. Massie did not give up and lost his position on the powerful Rules Committee, although he described it as a voluntary departure. Johnson made it clear that he wanted none of that on his watch.
Trump described this rebellion as unacceptable. Had Johnson allowed this rebellion to fester much longer, Trump might have survived.
